Free monetary stimulus has greatly increased consumer income and commodity spending, and won the annual WTF chart | Wolf Street

2021-12-16 08:14:51 By : Ms. Monica Zhao

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Personal income from all sources, including the $1,400 stimmies that fell from the sky, surged 21% in March from February and 31% from March 2019. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was $24.2 trillion, which is historic WTF shows the moment when the historical WTF overshoot triggered by the previous round of stimulus payments.

A month ago, after personal income plummeted in February, after the $600 stimulus that started at the end of December, which triggered a surge in January, I said: "We are eagerly looking forward to what this chart looks like in March and April, when the $1,400 When stimmm arrives. This will surprise us."

Hahaha, it does. This is simply crazy. So here I show you the latest and best WTF chart this year:

According to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, income from stimmies, unemployment insurance, and benefits surged, driven by the stimmies that entered the personal finances of millions of households in March. Unemployment benefits in March were slightly higher than in February, but lower than in January, with an annual growth rate of US$541 billion, accounting for only 10% of the total:

Wage income in March increased by 1.1% from February, and the seasonally adjusted annual growth rate was US$9.8 trillion. More workers in the hotel industry, including restaurants and hotels, have been re-employed. Some salary increases, including higher minimum wages at state and local levels, also flow into the data.

A year ago, high-income earners working in the office kept their jobs but switched to working from home. At the high end, especially among the senior executives, there have been many increases in remuneration packages. Unemployment is concentrated at the low end of the income scale, especially in the hotel and tourism industries. This low-end has been hiring some workers:

Durable goods spending in March surged 10.8% from February, and the seasonally adjusted annual rate was US$2.0 trillion, an increase of 33% from March 2019.

A month ago, when durable goods fell in February after spending $600 in January, I said, “So now everyone is counting on big fat new stimmies to reverse this fiasco.” They did it, another WTF moment:

Spending on nondurable goods (mainly food and gasoline) in March increased by 6.5% from February to US$3.4 trillion (seasonally adjusted annual rate), an increase of 15% from March 2019:

Service spending for six months of nothing gained in March increased by 2.2% from February to US$10.0 trillion (seasonally adjusted annual rate), but still fell 2.9% from the peak in February 2020.

Services include rent, mortgage interest payments, healthcare, education, insurance, travel reservations, mobile subscriptions, broadband and streaming services, electricity services, haircuts, ball games, cinema tickets, gym memberships, etc. Mixed together, some services, such as streaming services, killed it; and many other services, such as gyms and travel reservations, were overwhelmed.

Total consumer spending-so beautifully nurtured by free funds from the sky-increased by 4.2% in March over February and 7.2% over March 2019, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $15.4 trillion:

In recent months, inflation has been soaring, and this has occurred at all levels of the economy, because companies are facing soaring input costs and have to raise prices in an attempt to protect their profits, and as their customers -Other companies and consumers-are paying higher prices.

In the first quarter, this was reflected in the GDP data released yesterday. The inflation index used to adjust GDP to inflation increased by 3.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, more than twice that of the fourth quarter, showing the degree of inflation acceleration. Therefore, part of the increase in spending shown here comes from a sharp increase in prices.

The entire stimulus factor explains the record blowout trade deficit, because a large number of these goods are imported, bottlenecks, large shortages, blowout freight costs, and huge inflationary pressures accumulated along the way, and other distortions.

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I have a new theory for the shortage of parts and raw materials and soaring prices. When it comes to the real commodity economy, WFH and remote work are huge failures in productivity. It may be possible to sell insurance or plan TikTok videos in this way, but it is a loser when it comes to repairing computer sawmills or using software in resin factories. I noticed this when purchasing materials. In the past, when the internal sales staff were at the desk next to the warehouse, a phone call was needed for inquiries and purchases. Now they need 4 emails. Now they work from home for a day or two.

The situation you described is undoubtedly correct, and will complicate the ordering process and require more annoying phone time, but it should not cause a shortage of materials.

If you assume that the same thing is happening upstream, of course you can. The purchase manager of the steel plant was unable to obtain ore, limestone and coking coal in time due to the contact person working remotely, resulting in production shutdown and so on.

Steel mills are not retail customers or small businesses that order ore the next day or next week. The steel plant cannot be shut down suddenly and restarted when the fuel arrives, which may damage the plant and impose huge liability on the supplier. (This is a factor in breaking the famous coal strike in Britain. The union will not allow emergency deliveries to the old "Mary" furnace. Coal miners know that if the union is closed and disobeyed, it may never be restarted)

There is no doubt that things like this have already happened, but in most cases, the reasons for the shortage will be those described in the article: The Fed is sprinkling money everywhere like rain, leading to an unexpected wave of orders. This is a tribute to our supply chain generally working well, when it does not, people will think that something strange has happened. In the rest of the world, the delivery of anything is uncertain.

A person on WS said the chip shortage was a scam to raise prices a few days ago. But won't Ford pay double the cost to keep the F 150 production line running? If the shortage is man-made, why does this large Taiwanese manufacturer spend US$100 billion to build a new factory? Why can't it be explained as the flood of Fed funds leading to the flood of new orders?

The chip shortage is a scam to prevent the labor market from reaching the benchmark where quantitative easing began. CA slowed down its phased work and used inflation to raise prices and offset the decline in production. When the economy recovers, these price increases will not fall back. This scam is similar to Powell's exchange of terms with Trump on lower interest rates. Give me a trade war, I will give you ZIRP and REPO, and all the stock market confetti you want. Now he has set a similar challenge for Wall Street. There is a surplus of vaccines, and the workers should go back to the office.

"The chip shortage is a scam to prevent the labor market..."

What, dear friend, you drank early in the morning? Can I have some too?

Now wolf, that's not good. I think traditional wisdom s%$^ was in bed a while ago, looking forward to unconventional thinking like Mr. Bierces. Have you read Ambrose Beers? Men have a deep grasp of human nature. Did not call him Bitter Bierce for no reason.

In fact, I will compare the world economy since 2008 with his very famous story "The Owl Creek Bridge Incident". Is anyone familiar with that? Can you see the appearance?

Nick...Anyone who has dealt with in the real world knows what delay means. This usually means they are procrastinating...why are they procrastinating now? Make sure to get you into trouble as they try to solve the problem. What's the question? It only means that they can't "press the button" to get you the goods. They don't want to miss the they procrastinate...why is this now?

See picture above: Hippocrates talked about the idea that nothing is apparent in his advice on diagnosing disease, and there is no idea that there is an obvious answer: "When you hear the sound of horseshoes, don't think of zebras."

We have lost an entire generation. The generation that was told to "learn to code". Somehow, tapping on your Dumbphone and reacting to other people’s jingles every minute like Pavlov’s dog should be an alternative to personal experience. I just talked with another friend who owns a sawmill business like me. He can add another shift, and so can I, but there are no candidates with any experience. We will not train people who do not want to work there, nor will we provide training for a market that may end within 30 days. The United States and the entire Western world have weakened the foundation. Can't go back anymore.

If we encounter a credit crisis and the letter of credit is not honored (I remember something similar happened in 2008), will this lead to chaos in the supply chain?

"We don't train people"

Given the attitude you expressed, I think you were reluctant to train people before... I think you just assumed that because of despair, other people will pay for the training, and then you can take advantage of the training.

As for the use of technology (from programming to your name), in general, it requires methodical thinkers, who usually become better workers.

Therefore, anti-smartphones and so on do not make me feel

The same type of people who are interested in coding are often people who are interested in how the machine works (a program is an invisible machine).

Therefore, reducing interest in the technology itself again seems to be counterproductive.

I agree with Cam. The zombie tried to pick up the advertisement for the TV remote control, his arm fell off, and he showed a slight depression, and then said, "Let me see..." everything was said.

Maybe your view of the next economy is wrong? Besides digesting what you are giving me here is confusing? My shoe shiner knows this tabloid better. He is, we know. Want to elaborate?

It used to be a salary, now it is 4 salaries... Look! More spending! ! (I'm joking here, but then again...???).

The irony is how to forcibly take money from the producer and then give it to greedy people after saving 70% of the money for yourself, which politicians now call "free money-Stimmies"... ...How cute and innocent.

Does anyone care about the transition from productivity to welfare economy? Where does the future "welfare" come from?

In fact, the biggest gluttons have created a lot of inflation. Bankers, their privately owned but deceptively named "Federal" Reserve Bank, have been printing U.S. legal tender by theft, just like there is no tomorrow. For example, the purchase of non-recoverable mortgage-backed securities worth US$2 trillion from 2019 to the present will even purchase more at a rate of US$40 billion per month in 2021. Please refer to "The Federal Reserve will not stop buying MBS for the time being".

Because of their "Federal Reserve", hyperinflation may come. Shadowstats has not yet fully quantified inflation in 2021, but I bet it will be far greater than the small income increase that 90% of poorer Americans will receive. So far, using the more accurate 1980 measurement method, the inflation rate is only about 10%, or roughly the same as the actual inflation rate in 2020. Check out its alternative inflation chart.

Therefore, believe me, the poorer 90% of Americans are not "free loaders." As the former economist Simon Johnson of the International Monetary Fund discussed in the "Quiet Coup," the super-rich banker parasites who bribed our politicians to take over our government and financial system are truly free loaders. They have secured trillions of dollars in free funding for many people for decades. For example, see "Bank rescue scale: 29 trillion US dollars-CNBC" in CNBC. See "Big banks get the sweetest deal from the Covid-19 rescue plan" in kcrw. See "Facts Prove that Trillion-Dollar Bailouts are Actually Real" in Rolling Stone Magazine. See "Trillions of Dollar Bank Bailouts: Socialism for the Rich?" at pbsnewshour. See "The Federal Reserve's $16 trillion rescue plan is undervalued" in Forbes magazine.

Even a small portion stolen by bankers every two years can accommodate and care for the entire homeless population of the United States, or cancel all student debt in the United States. (This calculation actually refers to the $2 trillion spent on the F-35, but if we can stop the theft, the trillions of dollars stolen by bankers can achieve the same effect. See "The cost of military aircraft can be used $600,000 to feed every homeless in the U.S." in the Huffington Post. See "This country spends $1.7 trillion on non-working airplanes" in esquire.)

Then in this case, they didn't take it from *you* at all, they just created it out of thin air. The name of the true owner is printed on the Fed bill. You don't actually own your dollars. People like you believe that the world should be like this. It is full of what should be about fairness and what should be about rewards. When it comes to society, culture, and human law, we create our own reality. Other people as powerful as you want to create the world according to their wishes, they will directly overwhelm you. If you don't want to be shocked and frustrated forever like a toddler in a circus, get rid of everything you should and expect nothing.

This is consistent with my argument that for many remote workers, the WFH/WFA phenomenon will have a very short-term impact.

Companies that leave employees in the office/headquarters/workplace will eat the lunch of many companies that think remote employees are just as useful as on-site employees.

This assumes that many background jobs that actually do nothing (healthcare, some banking, higher education) actually have competition and will eat their lunch.

Many so-called jobs have little or nothing to do with productivity. After working for the government, I speak based on experience.

MrH read David Graeber's "Bullsh*t Jobs" to understand his consistent views on all this. He died after writing the tragedy.

If anyone is still in this room, tyler durden aka abc media recently posted their thoughts on the 90-year-old boss from Berkshire 3 hours. Now I think this ZH article and comment are very helpful for me to understand the psycho-financial world we live in. Read it, and for those who still love their mother...Happy Mother's Day!

Can a Ponzi scheme be gradually refined?

Of course it is a Ponzi scheme. This is how you skim from the top. This happens with bananas 24/7... It's a bit like drinking vodka, because there is a desire not to get drunk anymore. You agree, disagree, debate, and reject the same old routines day after day.

2B has an army, navy, and air force, so you can do whatever you want.

As long as the benefits of military power exceed the cost of doing so, an empire will rely on military power to grow and last. The most famous example is the Roman Empire, which relied on military power to develop, but ultimately could not support its huge army.

It also depends on whether the benefits of being a foreign vassal exceed the cost of resistance perceived by the conquered. The American Revolution is an example. However, Puerto Rico did not rebel, nor did Guam.

Why do they want it? They don't pay US federal income tax, but whenever a natural disaster occurs, FEMA will help them there, and they can also benefit from our military.

They will resist stupidly.

Yes, after the US Securities and Exchange Commission appointed a receiver, Ponzi schemes gradually decreased. It will always result in loss, except for the receiver designated by the attorney.

WTF is great, but I prefer TIAB-to infinity and beyond!

There are more incentives, rent/lease extensions, etc., people will regard earning a living as anti-human rights.

For some (educated) young people today, this may already be the case. (I just barely passed the graduate school, my work values ​​are intact)

Larry...Interesting! ! ! ! I just saw three heads line up in a row in the print!

Don't worry, there will be new spending bills of 2-3 trillion dollars in time. No more nonsense about the debt ceiling. Finally, mankind has reached the point of achievement without burdened with hard work. Amazon has everything I need.

Even more amazing is that no one in the history of civilization has ever tried to do this...

My personal favorite, perhaps similar to today, is the French assignment in the 1790s.

"What's even more amazing is that no one in the history of civilization has ever tried to do this..."

Yes, it has never happened...except for the previous government and previous government, previous government and everything else before...

Remember...cutting taxes for the rich can increase income and balance the budget. The same is true for military expenditures. Social security and medical insurance will cause deficits, and only government spending will cause deficits.

This is why before...and before and before...all record deficits caused by tax cuts for the rich have been cleared from reality.

There is no dying part like heaven on earth!

"Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell."

The Fed’s capitalism is as satisfying as phone sex.

Just two months ago, the government was not worried about spending 2T dollars on credit. Now the government does not want to increase the deficit without increasing taxes. Some things here are meaningless.

It is about feelings—absorbing the rich, taxing the rich, eating the rich—not about numbers.

G has no appearance of fiscal responsibility, and the Fed is an over-voluntary accomplice.

This part is related to the stimmies worth $2,000 that were in preparation before the current president took office.

At this rate, the recycling of FED to China through AMZN will continue until the last consumer in the United States completes the renovation of the third bathroom to install his/her seventh 72-inch 4K TV.

My brother-in-law scattered 9 damn things in his 5,000 square foot house. Some are in the bathroom.

The employee is gone. Logistics is a mess. Business has fallen into two vices. Remind you? right. A war. Manufacturers produce less and charge higher fees in order to maintain relevance. The central bank injected new funds into the income ladder. Replace evaporative expenditures. Sending more cash to people who are already wealthy will only push up the prices of stocks, bonds, and real estate. Waste of money. Socialism for the rich. WTF is not sustainable. Debt deflation is more likely than hyperinflation.

The last chart is interesting. It looks like the last point is slightly below the pre-pandemic trend line.

The service industry (which accounts for 70% of consumer spending) is still at its peak.

They did not use stimulus checks for rent and mortgages.

The student's debt has not been paid off.

Tolerance of various personal debts has played a role in synergistically stimulating income and other transfer payments to society.

Helicopter money plus forgiveness, extension and pretense.

So Wolfe, what is the total amount of all these stimulus funds (after subtracting the usual, non-stimulus sources of personal income)?

But we can see from your chart that most of the funds have entered the consumer economy.

Don't worry, Mr. Wolf.

The J team will start to solve it immediately. They will soon be passed the next stimulus, and only need one or two Dumbos to queue up, not to mention Joe #2 from WV. It is easy to bribe them.

Joe#2 can get one or two statues in his name like his glorious predecessor, Mr. Bird.

Dumbos, just threw a few bones to Susan and Lisa. Open the Arctic Circle for drilling, and whatever little things Maine wants. Then the tap will be opened for the service economy. (Or no, but it doesn’t matter, because the government’s stimulus measures will help ensure that everyone continues to get paid)

I like the way Mickey always chooses Susan to waste a vote to help her re-elect when he has time... I think Lisa is second in this assist.

The post office ruined my stimmy check and I cannot cash it. The accountant called and said that I had to pay extra for 2020 taxes. WTF indeed!

Don't feel bad. I never got mine

Please explain "P/O ruined your check, so it cannot be cashed". Thanks, others may also want to know.

If you just use some BS to embellish your vent, then skip it. Many people are upset for many different reasons, and most people are not lucky enough to even have an accountant, let alone call them.

Aren't you very friendly? They cut off part of the envelope, which contains a check. The routing number is incomplete.

Invention is a strange special complaint. But in any case, he can get incentives by submitting a 2020 tax return. So it's no big deal.

I am tired of P/O bashing. I was homeless when I was 38, and the P/O (plus the injured Vietnamese veterinarian's score added to my test score) saved me. The economic recession in the 1980s was so severe that millions of people never got rid of it. So when I saw a 17-year-old electronic technology (in their technical center in Norman OK, they received 84 weeks of postal machine training). When it's impossible, I question it. My reply was deleted, probably because it was too rude. I apologize, but I still support its content.

It’s worth mentioning that this stimulation was the perfect timing for me...Two major breaks that require crowns... Both the dentist and the endodontist got it (or will get it). I know that dentists like to go to India almost every year, and dentists can play good CW music and poker. Both have beautiful houses (almost all burned down) so I can guess some, but not all the "excitement".

Can't see WTF's chart for next year. This unearned tsunami has driven so much demand that I expect deflation in what everyone is buying today.

I think so too. This inflation and then deflation, with no or almost no growth. Then they will prepare the digital currency, and the Fed will deposit interesting money directly into your account. Inflation has caused wazoo.

Biden has more trillion dollars. He called it the American Family Plan, the Bacon Plan for $50 each.

He said once in a generation...Why is this happening now? Because it is so expensive that only one generation can be awakened at a time.

Does it smell like an American dream or an American fart?

This is the hustle and bustle of the Federal Reserve.

The biggest game changer in 2020 is the removal of all reserve requirements by the Federal Reserve.

Speak directly from the horse's mouth:

The Federal Reserve creates the monetary base, and your local bank provides loans to do the rest. Since March 2020, the sky is the limit.

Now everything can be randomly selected and exceed all reasonable limits:

BTC, Dogecoin, Norwegian Cruise Lines (all ships are still docking, but the stock price is soaring, sometimes rising 15% a day), Paris Hilton Bottled Fart, etc...

While browsing the headlines of MSM, I have a feeling that they think the current resident of WH is a deranged but amiable patient in a nursing home:

"Joe wants $4 for this, Joe wants $8...Look at him, is he a cute pie??"

Joe's wish will be granted without bothering to vote for an increase in the statutory debt limit.

Federal funds is zero under the quarterly CPI reading...3.8%...has it happened before? The 30-year mortgage (2.9%) is much lower than the inflation rate...30 years! The last time CPI reached this level was in 1999 and 2006, and the 30-year mortgage was 6%! ! The Fed is a rogue... derailed, did not perform its duties, levied an inflation tax, and made a fist... The last two are the powers that Congress has not granted the Fed under the Federal Reserve Act. Due to copper, wood, the past 5 months, the replacement cost of houses has risen by nearly 35%!

CTV News (Canada) reported that the price of construction materials has risen by 170% in just six months.

It was not until this comment was made that I realized the full meaning of the Fed's reduction of interest rates to zero. I just see it as "more irresponsible". But after reading what you said, I shudder.

Yes, it reduced its "reserve requirement" to zero, but it did not change its "capital requirement."

The reserves are huge and abundant. In some countries/regions, there is no reserve requirement at the beginning. Some central banks believe that they are not needed.

But the Fed has not lowered its "capital requirements." Capital requirements are the key to financial stability. They are things that absorb loss and limit risk. The "capital requirements" remain unchanged.

About 20 years ago, the Wall Street Journal regularly printed US Treasury auction data and a series of ### Treasury bonds sold to foreigners.

Another important argument is that China has no choice but to buy US debt to make up for the huge Sino-US trade deficit.

Now the Wall Street Journal clearly has no UST auction data. They are somewhere, such as the U.S. Department of the Treasury website, but you must look for them.

In the past 5 years, Japan and China held approximately US$1T each of UST. China has even dropped 200B dollars recently...

China is getting rid of the dollar generated by trade and buying everything worth buying in Africa.

To make a long story short, US financial institutions and their foreign subsidiaries are currently fully capitalized by holding UST.

Meet capital requirements. Yeah!

This is a piece of cake, Gekko, thanks to the 0.0% Fed reserve requirement.

Mortgage loans and student loans are not considered particularly valuable capital assets and will be transferred to government entities such as Sally Mae and Fannie Mae as soon as possible.

Pooh! Thank you for your clarification. Because of financial illiteracy, I am worried that "partial banking" now means "no reserve (partial)". To me, they are low enough and scary enough, except for the madness of all central banks. I think the only benefit is more than 2% in 30 years...I think there is nothing to say on this website, because I get interest rate suppression and long-term reader issues. Using it as the "bright side", I think I mean we are not as bad as Japan or Europe, but we don't have much exports, except for raw materials... It almost feels like we are a colony.

There are currently 3.9 trillion US dollars in excess reserves (all reserves are now "excess reserves" because there are no more "regulated reserves"), and banks have deposits with the Federal Reserve. The banking system is flooded with reserves. The Fed pays 0.1% interest to the bank on these reserves. In this environment of excess reserves, cutting the statutory reserve from 10% to 0% has not changed. In fact, reserves have soared since demand fell to zero:

Yes, the reserve requirement is irrelevant now, because the capital requirement is always the limiting factor. In addition, in any case, we are moving towards full reserve banking business through CBDC.

NB Low interest rate = low currency price, that is, large supply and low demand. The world is full of money, it's easy to stop somewhere, and then mess everything up, with little reward. The government is desperately letting people in the West invest in valuable future long-term growth projects and provide people with valuable jobs. However, we have been squandering high house prices and stock prices and sharing buybacks and bonuses. If we can’t solve this problem, we’re all “full”

After some research, just returned to that chart. For me, it simplifies the understanding that there are no two reserves in our banking system. Whether it's bad or not, I don't know, it sounds like it doesn't matter... The quantity is obviously important. I still think that opening some banks to the society is a risky thing, but the Dutch IIRC started as early as 300 years ago.

In addition to the "banking industry", there are other factors involved here. Thank you for helping me learn something that I am inherently resistant to, because, as a lifelong W-2 or my own person, I find it hard to like managers, pullers, etc., and rich bean counters, or have too many Of empathy for their problems. However, it gets along well with bookkeepers in small companies.

As far as the value of money is concerned, I still remember the so-called three big lies in Los Angeles (the hatred of Northern California/Los Angeles can be traced back a long time ago);

Mercedes-Benz charges a fee. I can get all the money I want with 10%. This is just a cold sore.

Since then, some things have changed.

I suspect that irritation testing is the main reason. For example, the Atlantic Monthly reported that deforestation caused by beetles is reducing the supply of wood, while demand is increasing. There are several reasons for the shortage of chips that have nothing to do with incentive checks. The congestion on the Suez Canal caused some delays. This is not to say that one-time expenditure will not cause a bottleneck. Excessive cash flow is part of the Fed’s policy, but I think the long-term trend of wealth concentration may mean a surplus of financial assets.

As far as timber is concerned, "shortage" seems to be a lie. Last summer, I saw a shortage of certain wood products such as siding and plywood. This year, everything is full. There is a lot of nonsense there-narratives in defense of price bubbles.

I haven't encountered this kind of "chip shortage" at all, and I have never. Was a bunch of chip factories burned down, or did everyone suddenly want something different? It seems suspicious.

Sudden demand. Look at the damn "durable goods" chart. This is why I released them. Many/most durable goods purchased by consumers contain chips, such as thousands of chips such as automobiles. If demand surges by 30% from one month to the next, you cannot build dozens of chip factories in two months.

Yes, I forgot about TVs, washing machines, clocks, coffee machines, etc. etc. I only thought of cars for some reason. Yes, I know very well what's in the car, but in general, it pales in comparison. My sin.

@Nbay added what Wolfe said: Not only can you not build dozens of chip factories to meet the surge in demand for computers and other commodities-the company was cutting production capacity before the COVID-19. For example, Intel closed 2 fabs before COVID. The "surge" brought about by the stimulus measures and WFG was completely unexpected-and it will not last. On the computer side-as companies either sell their unused computing equipment in the office, or WFH will mean that employees have overloaded laptops that will not be replaced for more than 5 years, so the demand will gradually disappear. Ditto car: The average age of a car on the road is about 12 years. Every "excess" new car purchased during the COVID-19 pandemic will affect sales for more than a decade. Home renovation and so on-the same thing.

@c1ue Yes, it is the perfect setting for the classic boom-bust cycle.

Aha, you go. The Atlantic has clearly stated this. Nettles are almost certainly a manifestation of climate change... NGD must be accelerated to deal with this problem. "Infrastructure" spending increased by US$500 million. This should be a good down payment change to solve the end of the world in 2040...or the crisis of 2050...

What does modern science say?

Mainstream "science" tells us that the climate change debate has been resolved, and unless we act quickly, we will be scorched... Just ask Greta.

No kidding, it has been solved forever...Any idiot will know that more humans will have an impact on the environment.

Just like any closed system, more of a certain thing or other things in it will effectively change the environment.

The distortion is how our scientists have been so desperate for the irreversible climatic conditions that will bring the world to an end in the past 50 years. The new ice age, unstoppable warming and rising sea levels will destroy mankind in 2000, 2010, 2015, 2030, 2050, etc...

H Believe that "models" are not science as I know them. It used to "believe" or something before you could repeat it completely through experimentation. But, hell, this may be too bad, we can't take risks. Not science, astrology. Going back to the good old days before enlightenment, you might even be hanged for questioning orthodoxy.

So is this just a humorous topic for you? sad.

If this becomes obvious to you in our lifetime, saying "I told you" would be stupid to me. Humans in the future will hope that they only have problems with the macro-financial system. Yes, in addition to large-scale green new industries and protection plans, ZPG must be resolved. I don’t know how to solve this problem, but we can definitely start others. If we care about people Greta's age...otherwise you are talking about F'em all. Laugh happily.

Popular science sez long Bermuda shorts, T-shirt and sandals.

If you are a god who bets on the earth, you will give it the possibility of survival before climate change kills it. For 20,000 years, all species have done war. Unfortunately, in 1952, we succeeded in stealing the sun literally. The H bomb created a small star on the surface of the earth. We know there are about 18,000. Only a few minutes away from the launch on one side, there have been six unsuccessful incidents.

But this is yesterday's wake-up problem. despair?

I support efforts on climate change, but why not highlight this issue and call it atmospheric change. During the freezing period in Texas, 8 people died and 1,100 people were hospitalized due to carbon monoxide poisoning. You cannot burn things without changing the air. Large-scale burning of coal is only 200 years old, and oil and natural gas are about 100 years old. There is nothing in atmospheric time, but it can already be detected.

It's nice to hear people sneer at our species, even though it is annoying. But it's not just climate, this is why coral reef ecosystems and the underlying food sources are dying.

Progress is welcome. Do you want to see how cancer has developed in the past 200 years?

In that time frame, it will increase by about 7 times, and any ecosystem will change. Especially considering how much land surface we have covered the earth.

It shouldn't surprise anyone, right? The key is not to have no influence, only fools would say so. The key is that the complete results and dynamics of these effects are impossible to know. If we do not do some vague things today, then the crazy predictions about when human civilization must end really need to stop.

Because whenever these are unsuccessful, it actually prompts people to become more skeptical about science until science itself is regarded as politics, which is crazy. Science will never be complete, because people today cannot even begin to explain the countless variables that go into things as complex as climate change, and I bet we don’t even know all the variables. But, ah well, we go all out and do things that we don't know the effect, because we have to reduce the damage.

He must be a confused master, so I think you should know it when you see it...

Timber futures must now be boosted. 1500 dollars? No one would pay nearly $10 for an 8-foot 2×4. Everyone I know put off most work unless absolutely necessary.

Yes, there are many house constructions (if you like low interest rates, stupid prices) but many small things are delayed (deck, fence, small building, shop building, etc.). I bet that I can hold on for longer than these prices.

The real problem is that this is the "baseline" now. Unless the $3 trillion annual "stimulus measures" are permanently renewed, economic activity will fall like a stone.

They will find excuses for the "stimulation" to continue.

Yes, until the bond market finally tells them no.

Who makes up this bond market?

The Fed can be the bond market, just like the Central Bank of Japan.

The Fed can buy all bonds like the IIRC in the 1920s.

But then? If there is no market for Treasury bonds, what value will the U.S. dollar have?

Dollar? The rich don't care about this. This is just a way to record their wealth. There are other ways.

There is no such thing as a bond duty police officer. Look at Japan: their central bank has actually bought all of their bonds and most of the stock market.

Yes, Japan is a creditor country, and its stocks/bonds do not require a foreign market. We are not, so we do.

@RightNYer We are a debtor country denominated in USD-we can print it at any time (and always do). So, is this really a debtor country?

If we have reached the peak of the stimulus, the yields on Treasury bonds may have peaked. I don't want to look like a fool and suggest that I never pull the trigger to take an initial position trade. This makes me think:

Part 1 is posted in the comments section of the transcript of "Now is the best time to sell." To recap, angry trading is designed to allow cash to work in an overvalued market, prudent investors are punished, and leveraged speculators are constantly being rescued by the world's central banks. Angry trading wants the risky asset to collapse, but it does not require it to be profitable.

In Part 1, I recommend waiting for the 30-year yield to double top around 2.5%. This is a safer option, but I continue to go long U.S. Treasuries with a 2.3% yield, which I will explain below.

An important aspect of The Angry Trade is borrowing money to get paid. This is achieved by making long Treasury bond futures contracts traded at a discount. These contracts expire 3 months apart, so they need to be renewed 4 times within a year to maintain the position. Spot premiums effectively lead to positive spreads. In other words, if the interest rate remains the same, you will be paid for holding the position. This is largely due to other investors who want to short U.S. Treasuries and are willing to pay their counterparties.

For those who are not familiar with futures trading, the thinkorswim app allows you to trade "paper money." Your account is funded with fake money, and you can trade like in a real account without taking any risks until you understand how it works.

There are four types of long-term Treasury bond contracts worthy of attention. It can be considered that the duration of the Ultra Bond / UB contract is 30 years. It has a margin requirement of US$8,000. For this money, you can speculate on Treasury bonds with a nominal value of approximately US$185,000 at the current price, effectively providing you with a leverage of 23 times. The most actively traded contract currently is the June contract. The spread between the June and September contracts is currently about $1,650, which is similar to a 3.6% yield. However, if interest rates rise by only 12 basis points in a year, the value of the contract will decrease by more than the one-year yield. It can easily rise so much in an hour. Suppose, if the 30-year yield returns to 2018 levels, you will lose approximately $40,000.

The 30-year bond/ZB contract behaves more like a 20-year bond. Its margin requirement is US$4,000, and its nominal value at current prices is approximately US$157,000. Here, the spread between the June and September contracts is approximately $1,500, which is similar to a 3.8% yield. A 19 basis point increase in interest rates effectively wiped out a year of gains. (The current 20-year and 30-year yield difference is 10 basis points. The last time the interest rate peaked around 2018, the spread was also around 10 basis points. In 2018, /UB was traded in Contango, and I did not touch it, but/ ZB trades at a spot premium.)

The behavior of 10-year Ultra Bond /TN is similar to that of 10-year bonds. Its margin requirement is 3100 USD and its nominal value is approximately 145,000 USD. The spread between the June and September contracts is approximately $1,300, which is similar to a 3.6% yield.

The behavior of 10-year bonds/ZN is similar to 8-year bonds. Its margin requirement is US$1,700 and its nominal value is approximately US$132,000. The spread between the June and September contracts is approximately $800, which is similar to a 2.4% yield.

The actual specifications and mathematics behind Treasury futures are complex and can be discussed in detail in the downloadable CME publication. What I have covered is a more intuitive explanation.

At present, I think there is a risk that the 10-year yield will rise faster than the 20-year or 30-year yield, so the initial transaction is to go long at 155'22”/ZB. This is how I published this article The exact price at the time was close to this price this morning. If interest rates return to 2018 levels, I expect the contract to lose $20,000. In Part 3, I will discuss doubling the transaction as interest rates rise further. Strategy.

Orthodox investor: Thanks for giving me a headache!

You have 3 trillion U.S. dollars each year plus inflation. Compound, you know!

That's right. What is government spending.... 33% of GDP? As a result, government spending has fallen, GDP has fallen, the Fed kept interest rates at zero to stimulate the economy (the stock market), and the borrowing cost of large-scale expenditure bills has remained close to zero...More spending plans...again, and then boom!

Yes. Classic boom-bust setting. An extreme.

In British Columbia, people are always ranting when cash injections are made around land claims settlements with local indigenous bands. (There are few treaties signed here, so it's a bit late to deal with these issues, and it's definitely more expensive to do so now). I always just shrug my shoulders and say that as the windfall is quickly spent, it will be immediately returned to the economy. I think the same is true in this case, such as aggie subsidies for agricultural towns. Distributors are doing well, restaurants (if they open), clothing stores, etc.

What's the big deal?

The super-rich do not pay taxes, or become bigger companies. I guess they only need to start one these days, don't they?

For me, $1,400 would be good, but I don’t need it. For many people, this will be a godsend. There should be a means survey and method to recover from high-wage earners... and require those slackers who don’t/will not pay taxes for the public good when they should always do. What, a recent political billionaire is proud of paying $750 in taxes over the years, but more taxes don’t? This is a pandemic, and many people need to lend a helping hand. It could have been better, but at least something has started.

I don't want to say that, but in my opinion, it's like printing money and giving it to 99% of people is actually injecting money into goods and services transactions.

Give Bill Gates $1,400 and he will invest it in financial assets. Or maybe you can fold it up and stick it under the legs of a rickety table.

Give $1,400 to people who wear paper hats at work, and then they go to buy products and services.

There is a class somewhere here. The first business is whether sudden fluctuations in demand will cause a dysfunctional supply system that is not yet ready. Then there is a shortage of chips, which will stifle car production.

So there are a lot of changes, but in my opinion, the most prominent is the original method (quantitative easing, etc.) that puts the expanded money supply in the hands of those who are least likely to use it in the real economy. We defined inflation, but it entered financial assets and engineering.

This time, the small amount of money provided to a large number of people seemed to accomplish what the Fed could not do.

Yes, but what are the benefits? If people use the printed money to buy products made in China sold by Amazon, the multiplier effect is very small. At the very least, if they pay someone to cook in a restaurant or build a deck for them, then the money will stay in the economy.

Uh, are you kidding, it has a good multiplier effect on China. Since Obama/Bush/Clinton, Team J is the best choice for XJP.

Trump's aberration is a natural freak.

In your case, money stays in the economy... the global economy, not to Mars.

Unless the contractor or restaurant hires illegal personnel, or even some legal personnel. Hundreds of billions of money left the country and returned to the motherland. This is your multiplier effect.

Who said that money must go to China? Let us continue to discuss this topic and compare the Fed's money printing with Congress's redistribution through the much criticized stimulus check. Scolded, just by those who didn't get it.

This is a complicated analysis process, but it is undeniable that quantitative easing has failed with a staggering 99% and caused a greater wealth rift.

Second, what cannot be ignored is that funds are provided directly to citizens, rather than the complicated nonsense process of the Fed serving Wall Street in the first place. Then there appears to be demand-driven inflation that conflicts with the dysfunctional system due to the new crown virus.

Whether there is a causal relationship remains to be resolved. Remember, people are still arguing about the 1930s, so we may never know.

Nevertheless, compared with the dramatic results of bypassing the Banster process a year later, we must consider the failure of quantitative easing (and terrible economic distortions) more than a decade later.

MG said it well. It’s also time to enforce trickles through taxes...for the national debt, right? Strengthen the IRS, especially the "death tax"... We don't want these dynasties to interfere with democratic efforts, right? The government has the right to print and levy taxes...Why have been so stingy with the latter for so long? (Although I know that is just rhetoric... 1% of people do the same.)

I really don't know why people always bring up this scarecrow. I oppose quantitative easing for any reason, whether it is to donate to Wall Street or to fund government spending. If the government intends to spend money, it should not cover up the actual cost.

This is a philosophical question as well as a personal question:

A person was born in the United States. That man worked and succeeded. The person complies with all laws and pays taxes during his lifetime. After death, the person has an inheritance of X dollars.

According to the rules of the estate tax, when that person dies, should Uncle Sam withdraw the percentage of Y from the X dollars? If so, how much should we allocate for Y and X? If someone thinks that Uncle Sam deserves some of these X dollars, and it is moral for Uncle Sam to take them, shouldn't we apply the legal rule of inheritance tax, that is, at the time of death, the Y percentage of everyone's estate belongs to Uncle Sam? ? ?

Nbay, after your death, have you instructed that your inheritance will go to your heirs or the charity of your choice, or will you choose to give it to Uncle Sam?

This is a fair question, and it can be questioned by anyone who claims that the IRS collects part of the money after the death of the "rich". Do these people require in their wills to hand over part or all of their property to the IRS at the time of their death?

Dan, of course, fairness questions should be asked more here, in fact, more personal matters should...let us know where someone comes from. You are very good at this, as are everyone else.

I even began to believe in the constitutional maximum net wealth that is enforced by the powerful Internal Revenue Service every year, because maybe just levying taxes will not easily solve the problem. So, it doesn't matter how much "moral hazard" is spreading everywhere, because it will be cleaned up every year so as not to cause too much systemic/democratic damage. May save capitalism. Give statues and dressing tables to extreme taxpayers who persist (they will be because of their prestige and command ability) and park their Mercedes-Benz anywhere.

Have you noticed that there is no statue of the founding father Tom Paine? The person who has read the most times per capita in history? And at the most critical time in history? Everyone should wonder why.

I have been in close contact with the "moral hazard" at the level of DC lobbyists, senators, and presidential candidates, but it is like an observer nephew who refuses a good job and does not know the real big deal... Although it’s a bit obvious that there are no, they don’t/never give me a "dime for death", they just pay for travel expenses and wait for a period of visits, gatherings and introductions...actually I am the only immediate family member It is the most recent (67-68) Vietnamese veterinarian, so I am my uncle’s "trophie kid" because these are the military-industrial types that Ike warned about. So "Citizens United, etc., is not just an abstract concept for me... I have seen them play that kind of game. With one of my cousins, I kind of "opted for exile"... He is a retired The carpenter who dropped out of the Air Force Academy did not get a penny.

In any case, it is enough to provide enough "incentives" (for those who need it), such as the current net worth of 10 million U.S. dollars...maybe 15 million U.S. dollars.

As for any hypocrisy of mine, there may be 150-200K USD (mostly on very remote off-grid land, with a few roads (seasonal) and a flexible container house/barn project, especially the recent fire ...I may be lower than I thought) I will go to the part of the family that needs more help. I don't think it is a problem. Because I do not intend to die in a hospital or nursing home, nor do I want to die slowly, I am 74 years old in a fat city. You come to judge me.

All this has to do with me, what can be happy?

We have increased income tax. What's wrong with real estate, just to restrict democratic purchases.

I don't see any philosophy, unless you want to debate "what is a good life", which is a very old debate. What degree of "democracy" do we want? With respect for your business, I think doing sports is better than watching sports...or both to get more inspiration.

I have no judgment on you.

I look at life like an athlete. The simple fact is that according to genetics, some people are more likely to succeed in an event than others. For example, some people are naturally suitable for sprinting, and some people are naturally suitable for running marathons. But all the genetic talents in the world cannot make up for the lack of psychological and physical preparation for success except for genes.

Just like life and business-to a large extent.

For me, the inheritance tax and progressive income tax rate are equivalent to telling those who can run fast that since they are faster than others, they cannot be allowed to run to the limit and reach the maximum speed; too fast.

The government spends money; I see. However, taking a big piece of his legacy after the death of the fast runner is the theft of IMO. Due to genetics, hard work, and perseverance, if people run faster than those who run slower (for whatever reason), they are taxed at a higher percentage, which is a punishment for IMO's success. The rules of the game should be the same for everyone-a uniform tax rate.

Subject: I received stimmy checks and cashed them. I don't need them, and they haven't changed my life in any way. On the other hand, they help millions of people put food on the table, which is a good thing. However, in theory, they will have to pay for future generations, which is a bad thing.

Like Wolfe, I feel frustrated that most of these stimulus funds go to China.

By the way, my goal as an athlete is to be the fastest person on earth. At the age of 27, I was the 5th fastest person in the United States. Since then, my speed has become slower and slower.

Dan, all sports have the same rules and execution. In 100 (well, drugs) and most other track and field sports dominated by genetics, people cannot cheat. But starting to practice a more complex exercise at a very young age, even with "less" genetic "talent" almost guarantees that a person will develop physical and muscle memory to succeed.

This is why equal educational opportunities are important, and I'm sure that due to the absurd wealth inequality, you would not naively think that they are currently completely equal.

And, most importantly, in business, sports, or our attempts at democracy, being able to use a large amount of personal agenda funds to change the rules will hardly bring about fair "wealth/power/prestige accumulation competition."

It's a bit like conducting a public bidding when reviewing a game, using the sports analogy.

I wish you good health. From my biologist's point of view, our body is everything we have or will have.

We can argue about this kind of congenital/nurtured matter forever, but if you want the final decision, go for it.

Start a 1km time trial on the racing track from standing up; alone and every second counts. This is my genes. His grandfather was a bronze medalist in the American Nationals 1/4 mile sprint in 1917 and participated in a six-day race in Madison Square Garden.

Yes, peace and health for all WOLFSTREET readers and commenters.

I'm sorry, Dan, but I can't resist, but I defeated you where the "fastest human" came in...sorta. In skydiving, even if the person who exits as late as the 8th road is definitely over 12 years old, even if you hang 4 outside (some DC-3s have handrails along the fuselage) and the exit is perfect, (no one "Pork" door) has to spend some time "standing on their heads" and reaching 200 mph, it will even slow down your viewing speed, so you just need to quickly check and then "throw it all away" ( As large as possible) Approach your friend at 80 miles per hour. But no genetics is needed, just practice and earn trust. When around strangers, a low SCS number will help. I'm less than 3000

Very good, I bet the adrenaline surge is fucking strong.

You have to read my comment again: "The fastest man on earth."

The title is actually held by Todd Reichert. In September 2016, he rode a human-powered bicycle named Eta designed by the "Canadian Team" at 89.59 mph, which is a Greek symbol used to express engineering efficiency!

World-class racetrack riders can now complete the standing start kilometer in less than a minute.

In 2005, the Mech E Solar Racing Team of the University of Michigan used my customized tubular roof machine to manufacture suspension parts on their cars, but in the North American Solar Challenge from Austin, Texas to Calgary Alberta, the University of Michigan Won the second place. The engineering efficiency averages 46 mph, and only the sun can provide you with 2,500 miles of power!

I bet that these speeds on extremely minimal weight bikes are also an adrenaline surge... I think this can help you walk faster. Cheers to all extreme sports and solar high tech! 30 years of VB is also great. I lost miserably on the 1/8-mile athlete "c" flat track, but in the game against Bultacos and Ossas, my DT-1 was doomed to my destiny, even if I did have a chance to get better. Close Ride pal (learning dirt together when they are 15-19 years old) continues to be a consistent winner, sponsored by a local bike shop, but only for local, regional things. My apartment is actually located on a large unofficial motocross track in '66... ​​I ride where I sit now... It's weird. Cheers to all sports!

PS: On the starting kilogram of that standing, what is the speed of passing the trap at the end? ...Or the fastest part of the entire ride? (Guess this is like the high end of a rally.)

Sorry for the delay, but on the weekend I was in Charlotte, North Carolina, hanging out with my former teammates, friends and IndyCar, IMSA and NASCAR racing engineers. Oh yes, then retrieve my M4 from his garage and drive back to Minneapolis. There was only one speeding ticket-in Tennessee-where all four corners of U.S. Route 25 between I-40 and I-75 made a lot of Michelin screams.

To answer your question about kilograms: On a 250-meter track, 40 mph = 13.98 seconds of lap time. The problem with the kilogram is that it is like running 400 meters, but to complete an extra 100-meter sprint. You ran out of oxygen gas in about 45 seconds and started seeing stars when you finished. The trick is to maintain speed at the end.

I would accelerate from 0 mph to 40 mph in less than 5 seconds, and then finish at about 36 mph. The best in the world now, they are a little faster than my previous speed, and have better riding skills, reaching 40 mph in less than 4 seconds, and running at a speed close to 40 mph Games.

World record @海平面= 59.324 seconds.

The Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and most economists who did not name Larry Summers have emphasized this point for years.

I agree with you. What we see here is mainly a negative reaction to "not worth it" to let go.

nonsense. Most of us have the same negative reaction to TARP, GM's rescue plan, and everything else.

Don't confuse ordinary fiscal conservatives with flattering leaders in the Republican Party, who are like their Democratic counterparts.

Thanks to Reagan, lobbyists, civic unity, etc., today's Democratic Party is on Eisenhower's right. I think the quarrel at the Republican party is very interesting. I watched all Tucker and some Hannity last night and I was almost crazy with laughter.

Also agree with Paulo and makruger... Let's pay some fair share and stop fighting. Give all of them a dressing table "If there is more time, trickle will work".

No, people who understand mathematics don't want to be destroyed by the inevitable inflation. When you give someone $3,200 a year, but their cost of living increases by $10,000, what do they get?

You will let the FBI monitor Wolf Street. I am bad sometimes, but not so bad.

Who is not worthy? Are the billionaire rentiers and the rich or the poor bastards working for them under their thumbs?

If this kind of problem is not properly resolved, it will lead to socialism, possibly through revolution. Even the stupidest SOB has begun to notice that the gap between rich and poor has widened.

This is enough to get me out of Austrian economics, wondering if I can still find the Che Guevara shirt from 1972. You cannot apply Austrian economics to this cesspool unless you explain why it ended in a bad ending.

These charts are even crazier when realizing that there will be a 7 million reduction in employment in 2021. (143 million vs 150 million in 2020)

And... well... wait... how can personal income from *wage and salary* increase* by about 2% (from 9.6T to 9.8T) while employment The number of people *decreased* by 5%.

Does anyone believe that in a plague year everyone will get a 5.2% salary increase on average?

There is something wrong with these wage statistics.

This may be a product of the collection method, but based on employment data, it makes no sense to aggregate wage data.

What is happening is that most of these 7 million people have more unemployed income than employment income

Maybe...but the wages and salaries chart should only reflect wages and salaries... *other* charts reflect the gvt pandemic premium.

There have been many salary increases, from huge increases at the administrative level to tens of millions of dollars per head, all the way to increases in state and local minimum wages. Sandwiched in the middle are all companies that are struggling to hire people who are now receiving government funding, including an extra $300 in weekly benefits. A company must provide more than this to get potential employees to forgo free funds and start working again. I often hear this from small business owners. In addition, we know that Amazon, Wal-Mart, etc. have raised wage standards.

A large number of unemployed people are mostly at the very low end of the salary level (leisure, travel, hospitality). In order to get them back, the company now has to provide more salaries.

That's right. The private sector is now competing with the federal government for workers. The stupid FBI pays people more money to stay at home than what the private sector is willing to pay for their labor. This won't solve itself overnight

I haven't seen any politicians talking about this. There is no longer any reason to pay people to stay at home. not any. Anyone can get the vaccine. The government is destroying this country.

No, the "stupid FBI" accidentally circumvented the trickle concept of the rich and BS and gave the money to the victims instead of the "not worth it". I know some people who are "not worth it". They used to work for me before I ended my practice on December 31, 20. The most qualified employee I met could not find a job and finally applied for unemployment. At the same time, the local Dairy Queen boss complained that he could not find enough workers.

Are the workers the perpetrators here, or are the plutocratic predators whose real production is far less than what they create but gains huge benefits?

Until recently, I did not agree with the negative view of “paying people who don’t work” with money. Then I realized that what we had was Audrey from the "Horror Shop"-an insatiable creature whose battle cry was "Feed me!"-and was accommodated by the Federal Reserve, sending the middle class to Audrey Zhang Opened mouth.

It's time for Audreys all over the world-Zuckerberg, Bezos, Gates, Musk, Dimon, Blank Fiennes, and their likes-to stop shearing. I hope the spire of the labor market pushes it to a place where the sun doesn't shine.

Why did quantitative easing, TARP, Twist and other Fed interventions not help 99%? Is the Fed’s direct payment to ordinary citizens the reason for the recent surge in prices? Is this the final denial of the plunder of the rich disguised as trickle-down economics?

Yes, I know it won't be great here, but when your narrative fails, you need to step back and find out why. Rinse your head and look again. Stop blaming the victim. If they can do better without working, how can you criticize them for not working?

This is basically what I did when I retired from the terrible American health care institution. Some of you may remember the post on health care I made here 6 years ago. If you search this site, you can see what I wrote and compare it with the final content.

Back on track, this is a monster created by the financial system. Ninety-nine percent of people have neither the psychopathic personal interest initiative nor the complex knowledge to mess things up.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune recently reported that former United Health CEO David Widgman made $42.1 million last year. Target CEO Brian Cornell brought in $77.5 million in revenue in 2020.

Since the stocks of both companies are in my portfolio, I want to say thank you.

Last week I was in Roseville, Minnesota. This is the original location that first opened tomorrow 59 years ago. This place is as busy as I remember. Jiaqing.

Because it’s the sweetness of preparation, let the bells ring at the cash register-Eric Wrecked

Not sure if you are happy with the excellent results, or if the CEO gets more bonuses than all Japanese CEOs who actually produce things for the store. :)

Excellent results; at least on paper. Before I sold them, there was no cash in the account.

A long-term retired friend and client/customer from Tickets is United Health's general counsel. She has done a good job with nearly $400 in stocks. However, 14 years ago, CEO Bill McGuire and his successor Stephen Hemsley had some pranks with retrospective options. Hemsley is the former chief financial officer of Arthur Anderson. When there was news that there was a problem with hundreds of millions of dollars, my friend had to find a way forward for the company.

The company and these men are fortunate enough to let her look at their ass! This is a small world: her husband is a friend of the Governor of Minnesota and U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, and a classmate of Yale University. The Dayton family founded Target. Mark is the goalkeeper of the Yale University hockey team. A real Minnesota, huh.

You are the stock owner. If the CEO does not make his money, then sell the stock.

Most of Target's CEO's 2020 income comes from long-term equity awards granted in previous years, but he will grant or exercise them in fiscal year 2020. He made $21.6 million in the last fiscal year.

Target was a huge success in the Covid era, because Mr. Cornell had prepared something for the company before Covid appeared. Cornell is the instructor of this ship, and his strategy puts them in an excellent position to provide contactless shopping. Their digital sales increased by $10B.

I would say that the CEO made his money, and when I walk into a store where shoppers spend money everywhere, it is difficult to decide to sell it-even if I sell it now it will be profitable.

Sorry, no public CEO "earns" $50 million in salary each year. He did not put any of his capital at risk, and apart from losing his job, he would not have any consequences for messing up.

"Sorry, but no public CEO "earns" $50 million in salary each year."

Not to mention that the work version of these people is to play at the local country club, and then drink a few martinis later (or during), and may breathe a few sentences about "business" at the same time.

I don't know...Hundreds of companies have cut dividends...I don't know if it is possible to increase the salary by 5% in this case.

As for "have to" raise wages... 7 million people were unemployed last year?

The pandemic premium may make hiring a bit difficult...but everyone can see that the premium is coming to an end (direct grants may be suitable for a month or 6 weeks of these are probably already spent. The unemployment premium is* Mainly*-not for everyone-just a premium to standard unemployment wages...not a premium to working wages).

So I don’t think that a large number of employers feel the need to raise wages.

1) Match C19 unemployment benefits *below* their standard salary or

2) Make C19 unemployed wages *higher* than their standard wages...because the C19 premium is not forever, and in fact they may fall/end, in

3) The time period for the payment of the above-mentioned company to shareholders.

What I want to say is that I may have overlooked the monthly nature of the "wage and salary" chart... the results of the previous months are more meaningful.

Interestingly, everyone knows that when the government’s generosity must end, the cliff is coming, but they also know that this will coincide with the time of the economic collapse... The end of generosity may be the fuse that led to this decline. So I commend the J team for trying to prevent this with their UBI version. The problem is of course that this kind of effort will fundamentally produce its own problems.

For our other drudges, this is a problem, making as much money as we can while we can, and praying that we can get off the train before it over the cliff.

It's difficult to be accurate, but it seems that certain factions in DC are indeed using this epidemic as a kind of limited-life, air-operated UBI-lite.

Perhaps the real test will be once the vacancy rate is high (70%? 80%?) and DC tries to expand the unemployment premium again.

When will the current unemployment premium plan end? September 30?

The unemployment caused by the current pandemic will end around mid-October 2024. We can always throw more variants during this period to control the development of things. As for people, they don't have things like AC-130, active rejection, and flashing bangs.

The solution to this problem is that people need to stop trying to exchange their digitally created stimuli for real goods. Instead, they should only be able to use these false incomes to buy false goods like NFT.

More helicopter funding is on the way.

People move rental houses to have a chance to win home ownership awards.

There is a shortage of rental cars. Tickets for Disneyland are sold out.

Yes, when the government forcibly shut down competitors, invested trillions of dollars in helicopter money in the customer base, and provided free funds in the capital market, the performance of large listed companies was surprising.

But if there is no permanent stimulation, it cannot be sustained. For those who claim that the market is "forward-looking," this is the problem.

The charts of financial assets as a percentage of GDP have a similar linear upward trend to these charts. Financial assets are as inflated as expenditures. This is an illusion of wealth. Thanks to Zirp, the couple’s stock fell by 70%, and the Fed contributed to a monster.

I usually take a conservative attitude towards my purchases, but the inflationary expectations caused by this free currency make me reassess whether I should buy what I plan to buy in the future. China can only produce and transport so much.

Please pull the demand and buy now so that we can fall into a more severe recession in the future.

We have already done this. The most recent example is called GFC. This is GFC Part 2 and it will be much uglier than #1.

But the future recession is not just because we are happy to pay for today's hamburger on Tuesday. This will also be the result of the destruction of entry-level jobs, which provide young people with new skills, showcase the work experience of new employers, and build credit history.

Few things can boost the economy like the formation of a new family. They provide fuel for the purchase of houses, furniture, carpets, baby products, paint, tableware, electrical appliances, minivans, school supplies, clothes, etc.

Where are those entry-level workers now? Maybe sitting at home and being "paid not to work". Did they do that? Are they based on the collective wisdom accumulated by 20-year-olds, with millions of people conspiring to forcibly build such a stupid system? Or is this the result of a hugely stupid public policy and regulatory capture?

Michael-some entry-level workers are studying hard online (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton University, UCLA, etc.). Or Youku. And it's free. Others are watching streaming movies or free broadcast television (60/70s sitcoms, WW Smackdown, etc.) or video games. I have hope for the former and sad for the latter.

Hey Lisa. Where did the "&c" thing come from? I know its purpose, but want to know if it is something outside of software culture. Maybe something like "out there" or actual code usage? Just curious, thanks.

@Nbay-This is the old usage of "&" as a ligature for "et". For example, "et cetera" is shortened to "etc" and further shortened to "&c". When all your code must fit 1k or even 512 bytes, every byte helps. In addition, a role can realize or interrupt the page jump. I started using it again to keep my aging mind flexible. ;-)

Thank you Lisa. It is not the code symbol, but the "explanation" after the function code is shortened (because of the lack of correct terminology) to help the next person.

Another digression learned here.

Didn’t credit card debt soar before the issuance of stable checks, indicating the mentality of becoming a payee, for example, the polar opposite of delayed gratification? This is comedy.

The global pandemic has shut down most economies on the planet, our stock market valuations are record-breaking, renewable energy sales prices are record-breaking, personal incomes are soaring vertically, etc.? Wait and so on, they are all good metrics.

Somewhere, someone yelled "Everything is fine". At the same time, I was watching the historic news report of Hindenburg’s "landing".

I took all the free gummy money and bought tulips, many, many tulips. What could go wrong?

I want to do some upgrades on my desktop. It seems that the computer components are 20-25% higher than last year. No decent graphics card can be found at any price (well, I am not willing to pay anything!).

The interesting thing is how can I see this before my eyes, and the Fed refuses to see it.

Yes, I know they think I got something better to justify the price. However, whether MS Word uses the new memory to open within 2 seconds or uses the old memory to open within 2.5 seconds is a sick joke.

"I can't find a decent graphics card anyway (well, I'm not willing to pay for anything!)"

They are all used to solve the meaningless algorithms of cryptocurrency. You'd better start using hard drives as much as possible, because next is some evidence of space coins gaining hype. HD prices in Southeast Asia have risen by 40%.

Of course, in a world on the brink of climate destruction, all of this makes perfect sense.

good idea. How many environmentalists are involved in Cryptos? Energy use clearly goes beyond the chart...more hypocrisy...from the left

Oh, man, if you just want to learn more about your political issues, you have to practice more nuances...shhh.

Oops, because my laptop is really old and I am worried that I will need a new one in the next year or so. It started to go wrong. I think I am 10 years old this year. This is the best I have ever had.

In the past few years, the quality of notebook computers has declined. The old IBM Thinkpad is of very good quality. After Lenovo took over, they became less important, but still higher than HP. If you don’t need an ultraportable laptop for travel, consider gaming laptops because they can withstand hours of gaming sessions under 100% load, but have a shorter battery life. Look for new AMD Ryzen 7nm processors because they consume less power. The problem is that you paid too much for a graphics card that you might not need.

Some companies produce rugged laptops for military specifications, but they are more expensive and have weaker processors. If you want something that can last ten years, then you may have to use a desktop computer.

No matter what you buy, look for something with unsoldered memory, then you can open the case and replace the hard drive or battery. Don't think you can fix anything on your laptop yourself unless you can find it in the manual. Before purchasing the machine, you must be able to download the complete manual online. Lenovo has done a good job in this area, while Acer has done a bad job. Today, many manufacturers have difficulty opening boxes.

They have parts and how to videos.

I just assembled my first computer this year. It's a bit of a learning curve, but if you are patient and have time, you can buy a lot of second-hand parts. The price has gone up, but I spent less money than last time and bought a much better computer. For laptop IDKs, you may need a small soldering iron for certain wires. There is a lot of information on You Tube, and the kids on the Reddit forum are very helpful.

Mac is a waste of money because of what you get. AMD needs time because Ryzen processors are in short supply-but it is feasible. Intel is now cheaper than before. I built a desktop around Ryzen 7 5800x, which is enough for photography and video. Unless you do this or perform extreme data processing, that would be an overkill. You may find that 7 5600 is used.

RAM, processors, fans, and chassis are all good choices.

If it is me and I need a laptop, at this point, I have built a computer from scratch, I just need to buy a broken laptop and repair it. Plus replace the power supply. This is not rocket science, and it is interesting to understand how parts work.

Also, if you have to buy something new and everyone is out of stock, I would choose B&H Photo. They may not be the fastest order time promised, but they will not overbook and then cancel your order at the last minute. They also appear to be on the "A" list shipped by the manufacturer.

Encrypted mining has long since moved from graphics cards to ASICs. The lack of computer CPU and peripherals (including graphics cards) is entirely caused by the combination of WFH and stimulus testing. WFH promotes computer sales—because the company’s computers in the empty office are idle, and people buy new laptops for WFH. Stimulus checks and "homeschooling" provide children with a way to buy their dream game settings. The game ushered in an iconic year.

The graphics card does not mine Bitcoin. Have you seen a large-scale mining operation? There are a lot of hardware and few screens. But I understand what you mean.

As for climate change, other than pointing out that the green movement supports electric vehicles like Tesla, and Tesla invests in bitcoin, which consumes huge amounts of energy, I will not delve into the issue itself.

Is Melon Tusk so ignorant? I do not think so. I think he just makes money where he can make money. He is like a fire extinguisher manufacturer, part-time arsonist.

However, I think the vast majority of climate change fighters who buy BTC do not understand that they are undermining their goals.

I watched a documentary about a BTC factory in China a long time ago. It's in a warehouse next to a remote dam. "Entrepreneurs" (or their representatives) have been buying these (at the time) about $1,000 miners, and they lined up in a row. The technician lives there, and his "leader" technology is responsible for managing it. A wall of the warehouse was almost covered by a 3-foot fan. Everything seems quasi-legal/quiet. Yes, Musk doesn't care where money and fame come from, as long as he can get it...just like most of his people.

The supplier gets a few graphics cards at a time, and then they leave immediately. You must keep checking the website until the website you want pops up. My son had a backorder, and he was able to find it faster by constantly checking the website. It's not cheap.

What happened to consumer credit? It seems that no one has paid off the student loan debt. It may have been joined because of the clarion call for forgiveness. Does anyone use Stimi as the down payment for F150, and their rent tolerant cash is abundant?

Let me think. I got all three stimulus checks. They basically offset my 2020 taxes. Otherwise, I will withdraw money from my savings to pay taxes. Become a bit silly.

exactly. My plan is to simply endorse my checks to the IRS, and then return them with my 1040 in 2020. You know, let them see how meaningless this exercise is. They broke my plan by depositing directly into my SocSec debit card account.

Student debt? How many two car families, two family families, luxury vacation families... how many children are burdened with college debt?

I know too much. Raise the bill kids...they will forgive, they will be told. When parents evade their duties and drive a big car to enjoy a wonderful holiday. This is why the Democrats voted... they waited for forgiveness. Isn't that something?

"What happened to consumer credit?"

Very good point of view. If people become indebted, then this will increase inflation expectations. I am too lazy and I am waiting for Wolf's next update.

Although we have not yet received widespread student loan forgiveness, all inflation ducks are lining up.

The CPI manipulated by the Fed may actually show 2.1% inflation!

If I were a bad Fed chairman and secretary of the Treasury, I would lower interest rates and lie about actual inflation. This way the government can fund itself without the need for politicians to be voted for for tax increases. That will be a never-ending story.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! ! ! ! Don't spill the beans on my old school plan! ! ! ! No one has figured it out yet! ! ! ! I also get kickbacks from corrupt scammers! ! ! They paid well! ! ! When I promised to email them the extra cost about the time of the crash before I trigger all of this down! ! ! ! Ha ha ha ha! ! ! ! I had a great time! ! ! ! I hope you all like your stimmies! ! ! ! Whoosh whoosh

Usually, when the government borrows money, people are expected to repay, this time the elite is expected to contribute, and they will get angry based on popular works in ZH.F..k.

1) SF Express couples roll back their rent, save the cost of packing and moving, and roll back the rent as a stepping stone. 2) Two years ago, an upper-middle class couple bought a house for 600,000 US dollars, with a down payment of 140,000 US dollars. 3) Their monthly maintenance cost is about $4,000, which is used for mortgages, taxes and insurance. 4) Closing costs, home improvement and the things they had to buy, because the house is out of space, cost another 40K 5) They took cash out of their pockets in the past two years: 140K down payment + 4K x 24 Maintenance months + 40K things, total = 275,000, or almost 50% of the house cost. 6) The trend is rising, they infer that they just can't stop. 7) Thousands of people are indulging here and there, which is nothing compared to the annual income of their houses.

Money is everywhere, so don’t worry. Money, money is everywhere, all wealth will shrink.

It reminds me of Nostradamus' prediction that money becomes worthless (here for entertainment purposes) that Nostradamus frequently quoted in his century 8 quatrains 28:

"The replicas of gold and silver swelled up, and were thrown into the lake after the theft. It was discovered that everything was exhausted by debt."

"All scripts and bonds will be wiped out."

Wow! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! When is it/is Century Eight?

I believe even scholars are not sure-N deliberately confuses his predictions instead of chronologically. This way he avoids being burned to death during his lifetime (because he is a "witch" who can predict the future).

Wood+265% Gasoline+182% Brent Crude Oil+163% Heating Oil+107 Corn+84% Soybean+72% Sugar+65% Cotton+54% Natural Gas+43% Platinum+52%

I want to know what will happen to the prices of these items once the WFT stimulus measures are fully launched. Don't worry, Powell just said that the biggest problem we face is the lack of inflation. His trick is when he says that if wage inflation exceeds 2%, the company will transfer their jobs to a third overseas working country.

If we can allow the inflation rate to rise to 2% and the unemployment rate to drop to 6.5%, we will normalize interest rates.

Oh, the check is in the mail.

1) Due to the shortage of chips, buy a brand-new 2020 model, the price is reduced by 3,999 US dollars, and the interest rate is low. 2) The "safe" parking lot of car dealers, used to store brand new cars with bras, was empty due to a fire in Japan. 3) Auto dealers make money from used cars and services. They must launch brand new 2021/22 models at dealerships, otherwise, they will no longer exist.

Be careful, this makes sense to me, although maybe it won't worry you because I'm not there...or here...or anywhere.

WTF soaring in the chart will make a good commercial for Viagra. Talking about a huge woody incense...I think these stimulus measures are like Viagra for spending, I hope we don’t overuse it and start hard for many years like this, because the downward trend will be bad...

As Buffet said, it feels best before the end.

Speaking of Buffett, he believes that inflation is everywhere, and our central bank hegemon either needs new indicators or has been focusing on the wrong inflation indicators.

If stiffness exceeds 4 hours, call your doctor, it may cause permanent damage.

This marketing line is almost as good as the marketing line of life-prolonging drugs for advanced cancer..."If you plan to have organ implants, please consult your doctor, and we would like to thank all those who participated in the trial and research."

We are in a creepy reality. The trade deficit continues to rise, and the U.S. dollar is still at 91.3. The OWJ's speech to Congress listed trillions of dollars in currency to be printed, and the U.S. dollar rebounded. Powell said that inflation has risen while gold has fallen. The dollar is about the same as the beginning of the stem. So do more. No one knows where the limit is, it's just temporary inflation. Print out the U.S. dollars and send the check. ! The hand-ring "expert" is as worthless as a tit on a wild boar, and knows nothing better than my Springer Spainel. Time is of the essence, because the productive world may want to consume what they produce at a certain point in time, and we will be unlucky. there is no tomorrow. Tomorrow is on the ship that left the port with sound money long ago! Increasing the U.S. dollar keeps us busy spending to reach a trade deficit of 150B or even higher. America! , America! , America! ..

To answer my question: Before this irritating nonsense, the local Toyota dealer used to have a $1,750 manufacturer rebate for a new car, and you can negotiate to reduce the price to about 12% under the msrp. A $45,000 car saves approximately $5,500. Now, there is no rebate, they are selling at msrp + some gimmick price. When you apply the $3,200 stimulus that one person received to the suggested retail price of $45,000, even after the stimulus, these vehicles are now thousands of dollars more expensive. How does this make a person want to buy a new car? This is a net loss of purchasing power.

My theory is that stimulus is not what drives demand. It's not even enhanced UE bennies. This is the eviction suspension and mortgage tolerance plan. The monthly payments that used to be paid are now used to buy new cars and toys. People also have no intention of repaying. They plan to be expelled and leave when this happens. They are in a YOLO mentality. This situation has been going on for more than a year and there is no end in sight. To be honest, I think the whole situation is disgusting.

Many car buyers are attracted to buying cars based on monthly "payments" and are not savvy enough to figure out what they are paying for the car. Now we have 84 months of loan... easy payment! Anyone is eligible... America is great!

A hydraulic pump went out. It is expected to arrive next Thursday. Of course she laughed, saying that reality is the hope for next week. No one came to transport. It looks like a road trip on Monday.

There is nothing to rent on the lot. Newly purchased... they all said that if you want next spring... order now. Owned this company for nearly 30 years. Never experienced this before. Due to supply and/or lack of staff, our company has reduced working hours and production.

I have never refused so many commercial and residential jobs. Crazy times.

Then I chatted with my food processing friends. Ouch! Wolfe might have to write an article about how crazy and $$ this is going to become.'s "short"...have you never heard of it? /second

Spark plugs, engine parts, light bulbs... how long is the list... We, like any country in history, are not self-sufficient enough.

Remember this mantra... "The trade deficit does not matter."

Well, I think they will. They proved that there is nothing in the United States other than "reservations."

"Excuses" are still made here.

"Here does nothing but book" classic!

"The trade deficit does not matter"-it is actually correct. If you can exchange paper (or actually zeros on a computer) for real goods-which party is the loser? Please note that I am not saying that deficits are good for most Americans, our infrastructure, our economy, our employment, etc. But I mean for American oligarchy-the trade deficit is huge.

Still very good at Ponzi schemes and public propaganda...

Achieved outstanding achievements in public promotion, (and advertising), almost keeping pace with Kim.

If you are not proud, then the good part is that you have made enough things during America's boom, and all you have to do is watch. Old cars, old furniture, old appliances, old clothes, old houses. Most people don't want it. Good things are usually made before inflation in 1970.

I will not call it stimmys income, they will not appear anywhere on your tax return. Even pretending that stimmys are income is ridiculous. They are just a way to push us all into the same ring of future responsibility. We are marked.

I think the stimulus money is a refund of the tax we paid. Nothing is free for us.

I think the stimulus money is a refund of the tax we paid. Nothing is free for us. And the price inflation they cause.

Yes, there is no incentive except for the person who pays the highest. Most people who received the stimulus plan did not pay any income tax and never paid.

There is a myth that low-income workers do not pay any taxes. This is a huge lie.

People I know earned 28K last year, which is about 60/40 wages and unemployed. Because of the tax relief for unemployment benefits, they pay taxes for 18K. The tax rate is very low, but they still pay about 1,000 taxes. If there is no unemployment tax relief, they might pay more.

Unless you really know a low-income person, especially a single person without children, and the taxes they pay, please don't repeat this big lie, especially if you live in New York.

Sorry, 1,000 dollars is basically nothing. The lower and middle class pay very little tax

Your belief that 1K is basically a lack of money obscures the fact that half of the countries may not have 1K savings. I'm glad it doesn't matter to you, for your sake. But I did not deposit an additional $100 in the bank for several years, which made me a normal situation.

By the way, the stimulus we received did not zero our taxes, just in case you want to know.

Listen, I didn't say that $1,000 is not a big deal to many people, but it is not a big deal in terms of the federal tax base.

You can check it out. The bottom 50% of taxpayers do not pay federal income tax, or pay very, very little. You can argue that this is because they did not do enough, but this does not change the facts.

With the rapid depreciation of currencies, the cost of collecting these taxes may be higher than the actual taxes collected.

The way to Penya. He had to twist, twist, and tap dance, but was still eliminated because of his obvious attitude of "blaming the loser". Beating someone in K-12 makes a "bully".

Incentive checks and additional unemployment checks are definitely shown as income. Stimulus is a tax rebate that has been "pre-calculated", while UE is taxable income.

No. No taxable income. Complete your taxes.

I'm pretty sure the chart just proved that tax cuts should be aimed at lower incomes, not higher incomes. The poor have spent every penny they have. Bezos needs thirty thousand lives to spend all of this.

guess what? Trickle economics is effective.

edmondo... The lower income does not need to pay any fees.

If there are children, workers with lower incomes may not pay. However, if you are single and make up for the 12K deductible, you will need to pay taxes unless the income is covered by the current unemployment tax relief. Any single person who has an annual income of more than 12K and works will be taxed.

The combined income of my daughter and her husband is approximately $60,000. Last year (2020), they paid approximately $4,000 in taxes (without children) using standard deductions.

In addition, this is after paying the 7.5% medical insurance and SS contributions. The 4,000 dollars was a check they wrote to withhold thousands of dollars after tax.

"Guess what? Trickle-down economics works."

The trickle-down effect causes asset inflation. A trickle will cause "everything else" inflation. Now, our mentally ill Fed is "tricking" up and down everyone on the planet... to create price stability by accelerating inflation to levels we have not seen since the 1970s. Can we call it Trickle-Fest 2021? ? ? It’s a bit like an itchy carnival, but no one laughs, because every minute of price increases will make capitalism lose the fun and try to survive with rising prices of necessities...unless you are in the top 1%, because of currency Inflate to wealthy asset owners.

Whether to drip or not, it should be a problem...

For example, according to CNBC, the Fed’s housing trickle is currently going up and down:

Timber prices seem to be setting new records almost every day, rising 67% this year and 340% higher than a year ago. The surge in timber prices in the past year has increased the average price of new single-family homes by $35,872

The price of gypsum (ie gypsum board) has risen by nearly 7% from a year ago.

The prices of steel mill products hit a record high, rising nearly 18% year-on-year in March. It is used for beams, sheet metal products and wiring.

Copper prices also hit a record high this month and have risen 27% so far this year.

Then there is land. The price of a single batch this year is 11% higher than last year because the demand is so high and the supply is so low. According to real estate data and consulting firm Zonda, the supply of new plots has fallen by 20% from a year ago.

The only reason for our high standard of living is that our ancestors did not spend everything they had, but invested in things that increased productivity. Any society based on spending everything is slowly dying out.

What evidence do you provide that people are not investing in increasing productivity? I know that some of my own stimulus funds are used for my business tools. People in the past do not act selflessly for the future like people do now.

correct. I believe Wolf had an article on entrepreneurship not long ago.

Stock buybacks, crazy executive compensation, runaway factories, and mergers are all evidence that *not* invest in productivity.

Compared with the billionaire class, the total dollar invested by all smaller operators is just lint in their pockets. They prefer the excitement of gambling rather than the hard work of making things.

Some people are saving, but as a country as a whole, our saving has fallen from 12% of GDP to 2% for a long time. You can find these numbers on FRED. The government wants us to spend more money. This is not the secret of long-term prosperity.

I think you have overlooked a larger long-term trend that got a quick start from wtf infusion and pandemic lockdown.

We have lived in the entry-level residential area for 40 years. We had to buy with friends because none of us can do it alone. There is a stable job, the crime rate in the area is low, the school is good, and we don’t see too many reasons to move, even though this is an entry-level house. It's a bit boring, so we play acoustic traditional and folk music in dances, hold concerts at home, hold concerts elsewhere, and host traveling artists and musicians. We rarely lack "experience." You will know some musicians and music.

Cheap but joyful entertainment. As Bill Staines told us at breakfast, "Remember, you can earn hundreds or hundreds of dollars from playing folk music." We didn't have a TV, we read "Millionaires Next Door", got to know many people involved in making this city a better place, and saved a lot of money because we didn't try to keep up with the show-off that proved that we were rich. We save a lot of money-making experience instead of buying experience. We have traveled many times for work and as volunteers, but no matter where we go, we already have friends who will show us the real deal.

Around 2018, people began to move into our community. People slowly discovered that investment is not just about stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin. People participated in community building. People found that renting from Blackwater might not be the best or just an investment for your life. Maybe it's time to do something for wealth, gender, race, and social inequality, and start tackling climate change.

Although we have exited those stocks and bonds, when I saw your durable goods chart, I saw dishwashers and refrigerators moved in. I saw people who could have bought easily but didn't. I see people meeting with us and other neighbors, holding parties in the park and building communities.

This expenditure should have been incurred for 40 years. Rich people like us can and should be hit. As Wolfe has pointed out for many years, a large part of what we do is not from good business and governance, but from manipulated markets, terrible labor practices, here and exports, and unpaid economic externalities. Such as pollution and climate change. Did not get first place in the bankruptcy court.

These charts are just a measure of what we can and should always pay. If we are too greedy, who knows what the next epidemic, disaster, and war will look like.

Cynics will read many comments here, believing that the privileged class suddenly has a little money to spend in a short time.

The resentment of people who have been hurt by economic manipulation is pathological. Said a lot about us as a nation.

Most people don’t like the fruits of their labor being stolen. Many of them make wrong decisions such as giving birth out of wedlock.

Since the LBJ's anti-poverty war, the left has encouraged the disintegration of poor families and made them a structural part of the social safety net. If the generosity of the government is structurally imposed on the poor, you cannot say that the poor have made the wrong decision. And you deliberately ignore the number of middle-class jobs that rely on the poor to stay poor.

By the way, JPM and its employees make a living from the money on the debit card used to distribute these benefits. The same is true for their shareholders. Welcome to the impoverished industrial park.

A very very good petunia. "Poverty Industrial Park". Economic subset for further analysis.

"Poverty Industrial Park" was not created by me. I heard it was recently used to describe the situation of homeless people in California. This sentence is used to explain how all the funds raised for the homeless disappeared in studies, wages, and services instead of entering actual housing. Yes, this topic needs further discussion because it will expand to every community if it can happen at the door of Beverly Hills.

You will never find me defending the political left, the New Deal, the great society, or any of them.

But the fact remains that children born out of wedlock are an option, even if the support provided by the government can alleviate the pain of doing so.

You will never find me defending any bank.

There are some safe ways to deal with the "bad choices" caused by young raging hormones... Wealthy kids have no problem using it... Young people do a lot of things they regret, driving deaths and drug addiction/overdose statistics prove Up to this point. And our current poverty/marginal society should be largely blamed.

Everyone who is lucky enough to not become an incurable mental patient should have a second chance...If they want...I bet you won't go bankrupt because of improper choices... ...Even among older people who know better.

Wise advice and practical advice until you get yokel Walker "It’s time to do something about wealth, gender, race, and social inequality, and start fighting climate change."

You can't do anything about biology and geomorphology. Save energy for your own life, instead of trying to catch the horns of the elites to divide us.

Is life without freedom everywhere...

I hate pushing tabloid belly buttons many times. This time I cried borey borey.

Before the Covid pandemic, there was a lot of discussion in Europe about providing monthly income to all citizens. In Italy, it was partly for those who have no other income, the unemployed, and they called it "citizen pensions." In Switzerland, where there is the oldest democracy, the proposal was voted through, and the people rejected the proposal with an overwhelming majority, including me. Now I have the impression that the U.S. government needs to rely on this endless income of citizens to take this road. Why should it stop on such a good road that everyone can collect money without doing anything, applaud and vote for the population of the right party who considers everything? . , No one ruled out. Bread and games were the main purpose of the Roman Empire in the last period of its existence. Any reference game "online games" is purely causal.

Where do people think the money comes from? It will not grow on trees. You can't just print your path to wealth. Sometimes I think that humans are losing IQ quickly. Because they didn't learn anything from currency failures in history, and made the same stupid mistakes over and over again.

Make sure that money grows on the tree cannabis for example? I think hard work income earned through wages is now easier to confiscate. Wolf needs to do better education.

@Depth Charge What you are seeing is the exorbitant privilege of maximizing the use of dollars. As I have pointed out in the past—and Wolfe—foreign CBs stopped increasing their dollar holdings/net purchases of U.S. Treasuries in 2012. But trillions of CB treasury bonds, world trade transaction dollars, and (deliberately misspelled) U.S. dollars held by foreign individuals constitute a good monetary motivator, which allows more "printing" than any normal country. There are no consequences. But even so, Japan’s printing volume is much higher, and it still seems to be doing well. The notion that "bond duty policeman" or "financial physics" or any negative consequences of deus ex machina will come to the first world country's printing decree has yet to be confirmed.

Similarly, Japan "does well" because their production far exceeds consumption. Not to mention that they have a more cohesive and homogenous society and culture, which will not lead to the kind of turbulence that we have caused due to inequality.

The meme that "Japan has been doing this for decades, so the United States can too" is getting old.

As I mentioned above-Japan is a creditor country, but that is because the yen is not a reserve currency. The dollar is. The U.S. debt is printable U.S. dollars. In addition, I would like to point out that the United States violated its Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 by substituting U.S. dollars for gold. I am not saying that everything will be fine or over-I am saying that the failure of printing is by no means certain. The few economists who are not stupid are correct that there is currently no choice but the US dollar when it comes to international trade and/or offsetting creditor country surpluses. I do agree that for printing to be a real problem, there must first be a viable substitute for the dollar. This alternative is not an independent cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. It will not be gold. China still seems to be the only possible option, but they still have not resolved their capital flight problem.

"Their capital flight problem" is not a diagnosis, but a symptom. This disease is corruption, manipulation, distortion, and lies from a central government that no one trusts in the world. China will never have a real reserve currency under the current government.

"The view that the'bond police officer' or'financial physics' or any negative consequences of deus ex machina will come to the printing decree of the first world countries has yet to be confirmed."

It also has many points to refute:

* Things that cannot last forever will eventually end.

*There is no free lunch in the world.

* Don't assume that it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet.

*The way of Tao is reversal.

* If this sounds too good to be true (for example, we can print the road to prosperity), that might be it.

Truth is more bizarre than novels.

After decades of growth, research has shown that IQ has been declining since around the 1970s. The reasons may of course be multi-factors, and environmental impact is the single largest factor (of course, our genes have not changed significantly).

Coupled with the poor young generation who are addicted to electronic devices, who are constantly distracted by blue screens and do not pay much attention to intellectual excellence in our school, you may be brewing a real-life "idiot" (see the 2006 movie ).

Seeing this comment on today’s youth surprised me:

""The Starbucks barista misspelled my name on the cup! "(Fainted) put on a suicide watch, started GoFundMe, became a TikTok video recorder, and then became an "influencer", fell off a pedestrian bridge in Thailand trying to take a perfect selfie, when her social media account was deleted At that time, she immediately disappeared. Over."

Around 1970, real good pots, magic mushrooms, and synthetic psychedelic drugs (LSD, DMT) became common in a "counterculture" that included many "intellectuals."

Just an observation. I was there.

There are some interesting studies on the impact of falling dust radiation tested in Nevada and other places on IQ. However, few smart people I know have children, or they have fewer children. Well, IDK...

High taxes are imposed on companies. A multinational agreement is required.

Just finished reading "when the money is dead" about hyperinflation in Germany after the First World War. This should be a compulsory reading for every high school student. But I know this will never happen.

The middle class in Germany was wiped out. Those who followed the rules lost everything. The gamblers and speculators playing in the casino were recognized. Society is torn apart by inequality.

Please note that they succeeded in a short period of time, but a few years later World War II destroyed all of this.

What I want to point out is that it is not a "citizen" income in itself. Especially: if non-citizens are registered with the state unemployment agency-they can receive three or four times the federal unemployment benefits. I have a direct personal understanding of the people who do this (they tell me).

They would rather donate money to keep people away from the labor market and then let go of their technological dreams.

The chart is in trillions. This is the view of art

Of the 6.4% of the GDP report for the first quarter, about 7% came from people spending economic checks on purchases. Please note that 3% of this 7% is used for durable goods, most of which are debt financing, which will be paid slowly over time, so it will not really stimulate long-term economic growth, at least for the United States and China!

US Stimmies WTF chart = "temporary"

Ultimately the Federal Reserve = El Traidor transitorio del America

Printed in the U.S. = Everyone in the world who holds U.S. dollars loses purchasing power. Americans get some rewards from the stimulus plan/UE benefits, maybe additional rewards, but ROW? so terrible. That is the ultimate excessive privilege.

"Sic Transit gloria mundi" "Dum vivimus vivamus"

The key date in the chart is October 31, 2019. That was the time the depth bomb exploded. If you understand the historical background of this date, you can enter the gate and enter the next level. This is a depth bomb, remember, we have to go down, the pyramid is upside down.

Hey, I want to charge for the roll call.

In this case, you may need to contact Lake Monster Brewing in St. Paul, Minnesota. Their new beer throughout the year: "Depth Charge Juicy IPA".

6.2% ABV Al's yeast two rows of barley and white wheat yeast Cyro Citra, Strata, Bravo and Idaho 7 hops

They called it "Hop Bomb", hence the name. cheers!

I don’t live in the United States, so I won’t be stimulated, but I know someone will cash in on buying gold and silver right away. So when will the next check come? :)

One thing I thought about was what the United States would be like if we had to balance the budget now. It will be very difficult, it tells you that most of what is happening is the illusion of prosperity. I think the Fed has determined that the United States cannot afford a recession, so they are stealing funds from our future to prevent the invasion of wolves.

With all consumption moving forward, the next recession will be a nightmare.

The interesting thing is-my eyeball estimate of the wage/salary shortage is at least $5 trillion-it depends on the estimate of the "normal" ratio. The actual loss may be significantly higher-the service sector has a lot of undeclared income (tips, black market labor, etc.). Therefore, I suspect that if this undeclared income is stimulated by COVID benefits-inspections 1 and 2, but more of unemployment benefits, the income "leaps" recorded by the Federal Reserve will replace some, all, or overshoots (in some In some cases). In industries such as housing construction, I suspect that undeclared people have collected both UE benefits and their rapid development of underground construction checks. My previous trip to Florida-the Lyft driver told me that there seemed to be a lot fewer drivers on the road. Maybe it is better to collect UE than to drive for Lyft, but he said that before COVID-there will be 150 cars lined up to pick up passengers. These days it is 5-7 or less. His second data point is the Lyft bonus-called "stripes". Basically, the winning streak is based on the reward for picking up 3 passengers in a short period of time. They used to be at most once a week. Now they are there almost every day. Florida's flights and hotels are growing rapidly-every flight I have taken in the past two weeks is full of people. I don't know what the "normal" hotel prices will be in late April/early May, but they can easily be 150% to 200% of the price I paid from October to December 2020. Even the San Francisco airport is increasing prices. The inbound flight (4/29 AM on Thursday) is clearly full because the flow of unloaded passengers corresponds to the density of the previous major meetings. And the traffic out of town during the afternoon commute is ridiculous again-although it depends on the date. The worst traffic situation I've seen since 2000 was a rainy day last month...the good times are back? No, not really. The Supercuts I usually go to-closed for at least 5 months during the early COVID/2020 summer riot season-is still a ghost town. It seems that no one has entered the Salesforce Tower, Google, Microsoft, etc., and the traffic of FiDi and East Cut is still very scarce. Metromile withdrew from 3rd & Folsom's exquisite LED lighting building and has been replaced by NTT. The former Courtyard Hotel on Second Street-there have been many young people almost always.

The Fed deliberately brakes the system. As central bankers have done many times before. They leave enough time between crashes, so there are always enough new players to ignore what actually happened. Some old geezers who follow me like this have seen it several times before and are (are) preparing for the next time. But this time is different. ;-) Now the younger generation (20-30 years old) is also aware of fraud and ready for it. Some people are in the ears of cryptocurrency. But this is not the point. The point is awareness. This is very important. The scam is the same as before. But sometimes it breaks the bankers themselves by overplaying their hands and/or playing against multiple people at once. Things that have happened before.

"Some people are at a loss in cryptocurrency."

Because they foolishly thought that it was not a pump and dumping plan either.

You have read a lot about "Institutions Adopting BTC" (i.e. baby boomers). Maybe when zoom lenses and millennials turn to the next hot thing, they will eventually become bag holders.

Don’t institutions adopt cryptocurrency exchanges because they want to charge transaction fees? This makes a lot of sense to me.

Yes, I think this will be most of them. But I have read that many people spend millions to buy BTC itself.

I guess the casino is wider than I thought. I'm going to the "old school" to brave crypto gambling.

American sheep addicted to games and circuses used a large amount of federal government relief funds based on new debts to thank China for destroying (and thus destroying Trump's re-election) by purchasing the latest electronic toys to replace the still valid electronic toys they already own. The wonderful economy of the virus is great, and it proves the great truth of the very old communist motto, which is what happens when the government bought does not protect their homegrown industry: "The capitalist will sell you the rope to hang him."

Of course, in this case, it is "after he has funded your rope factory and allowed you to steal his intellectual property without any consequences, buy the rope you hang on him because he likes cheap labor and is stupid." I hope to have a market share of your 1.4 billion potential consumers, when, in fact, he will be replaced by what local industries have learned and stolen from him by local industries.”

Rent and mortgage extensions are most likely to be related to consumer profligacy, rather than the meager charity of the Ministry of Finance. If you don't pay rent/mortgage PLUS remote work and don't pay commute expenses PLUS meager handouts, you may add a windfall.

The suspension of trading will not last forever, and there will be more homeless people.

I would like to know. The housing Ponzi scheme blew it up in 2008. A complex alphabet soup of CDO and derivatives. Maybe this time encryption can do it. You can bet that the big banks are doing their usual alchemy. I'm sure there are some financial bombs related to crypto

I thought the same intuitively-and then I accidentally found an eye-opening analysis: "The Bit Short: Inside Crypto's Doomsday Machine"

ALKU - thank you, I am lucky to be able to read it now, and I would recommend anyone to read it before they make expensive promises that they might not understand, and even before even thinking about a little bit of encryption, I definitely don't. admire you

This is still a global economy with overcapacity. The real problem is those timber buyers who want to build new houses, not those who make renovations, and there are many existing houses. The main reason for the outstanding performance of new home builders is that existing supply is prevented from entering the market. Once this surge encounters pent-up supply, then prices will fall, which is difficult. No, we have seen the return of timeshare, which is a strategy for American companies to make you pay more for a house (or car) than you really need. It seems to be working too.

Consider the shortage of chips from the perspective of supply and demand.

1. Sudden increase in demand or 2. Sudden decrease in supply or 3. Both

Consider the problem from the perspective of the demand/supply ratio. The numerator increases by 10% and the ratio increases by 10%. The denominator decreases by 10% and the ratio increases by 11.11%5.

We are currently experiencing the magical effect of #3!

In order to avoid shortages and surpluses, the ratio needs to remain constant. In the best case, this is difficult to do because we cannot reliably predict supply or demand. But when the government started distributing free funds, they turned a difficult process into a dice role for both supply and demand. The only thing we can do is to ask God to save us from evil.

The Sox Index fell 10% in April. I assure you that if people want gold and there is a shortage of supply, the price of gold will not fall.

It is not Intel's server chips that are in short supply. Common and cheap things are used for toasters, appliances, and car door locks. That kind of thing.

"That kind of stuff" has very low profit margins, and high-volume things are usually irreplaceable ASICs and link buyers with semi-suppliers. If your fab has limited capacity, you will first manufacture high-margin chips. Many contract renegotiations take place in the background.

You can use futures contracts to short gold. You can sell 10 times or 100 times the amount of gold available in the world in the long term, and no one will blink.

How do you short sell computer chips? Short selling companies are not exactly the same.

In 1989, there was a proposal for a futures contract for computer chips. If you remember, it may be the path of stock futures. The easiest way to promote the stock market is futures. We have seen in oil futures what happens when players who don’t want a target or specification are eliminated. In gold, the problem is another way. If all players want to deliver, comex cannot find enough physical objects. The main reason for the shortage is demand. Printing money is much easier than computer chips. The WTF moment of consumer spending is only a small part of the (US?) monetary system growth. The formula has not changed, and the impact of government spending on GDP is still declining (which is why they continue to fuel). Between the tax cats of the rich and the stimulus of others, the new cash is boffo. So in this case, why do you have to empty the computer chip until the new money is over?

I am not going to short computer chips, which is suicide at this point. I just want to say that the price of gold may be manipulated by future contracts, and the current price may not represent actual demand. The demand may be much lower or much higher, we don't know.

1) Personal income: WTF, Osama left 10 years ago, which is why expenditures look like bullhorns. 2) SPX Daily: The last upward fractal is on November 9th, and the tail is bought from then on. 3) Take the ascending resistance line from the high of November 16 to the high of December 4. // Take the parallel line from the 19 low point. 4) SPX has formed a bullish angle since the low of January 29. Because of the expenditure chart, it becomes vertical. 5) Steam power sends SPX back to the interior of Lazer. April 16th is a rising period. 6) Joe Brigitte Chuck: Chuck feints and faints. SPX Weekly this week may get DM #9 on May 3. DM #9 is a bulldozer. 7) Hopefully, this upward trend will resume after the Portland bolice strike. Test Lazer. 8) After the bearish Schabacker angle, WTI broke through its fractal zone #1 every week.

Wolf, you mean to tell me that the Federal Reserve has not solved all our problems. They printed all worthless money printing and stimulus checks for free? If there is something like stimulating fatigue, I know. The tsunami that heaven helped us resolve this disaster soon came to us.

The media thinks we are all good

Regarding the commercialization of climate change. I just hope someone can find a way to commoditize trash picking—starting with the corporate "individuals" who own our Congress. How many million barrels of DDT are there on the seafloor near the Catalina Islands?

If anyone is still in this room, tyler durden aka abc media recently posted their thoughts on the 90-year-old boss from Berkshire 3 hours. Now I think this ZH article and comment are very helpful for me to understand the psycho-financial world we live in. Read it, and for those who still love their mother...Happy Mother's Day! PS double stickers.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated last week: “Consumer prices in March increased by 2.6% compared to the same month last year. In March alone, consumer prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month, which is a significant increase since 2012. The biggest monthly increase." Source: CNN

I just counted my grocery expenditures in April. Nothing to buy more than in March or February. But my expenditure was $1,150, compared to $1,050 in March. Including non-food items, such as paper towels, laundry detergent, etc. There will definitely be some contraction and expansion, because I haven't noticed a huge price increase like the 20% increase in European imports a month ago. Agricultural products and fish seem to be reasonable. So something happened here. I don't know what

Everything will be eaten up by inflation. If inflation makes it easier to pay off debts, why do debts keep rising? It's the damn blind man leading the blind. Unless more money is borrowed to repay previous debts, no debts will be repaid. I borrowed money from Dick, so I can pay off the money I borrowed from John, so I can pay off the money I borrowed from the Tom scene. End the damn criminal organization named FED. Abolish the criminal organization called the government. Spend your money now. Buy gold, guns and ammunition.

"If its rulers are warned from time to time that their people must maintain a spirit of resistance, which country can maintain its freedom? Let them take up arms." ~ Thomas Jefferson

Soaring prices have pushed up retail sales across the board, especially for car dealers and gas stations.

The huge price pressure in the pipeline is coming towards consumers.

Which states are the leaders in pickup truck sales?

The European Central Bank is still recklessly delusional.

Buy high, don't buy low. Prices have skyrocketed, but the company is repurchasing them in an unprecedented way.

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